Location, Efficiency, Resilience: Keys to Surviving 2025 in Real Estate

Álmos Mikesy, CEO and Chairman of the Board at Gránit Asset Management, has been named one of the “Top 50 Key Players in Real Estate” by the Budapest Business Journal. To mark the occasion, BBJ conducted an interview with him, touching on the geopolitical challenges shaping the Hungarian real estate market, shifting sector trends in 2025, and the growing influence of ESG principles across the industry.

Background Info
Álmos Mikesy is the CEO and Chairman of the Board of Gránit Asset Management. He has over fifteenyears of relevant business experience, having previously gained leadership and business experience inventure capital, private equity, and M&A. He obtained his economics degree in 2009 from CorvinusUniversity of Budapest, majoring in International Economics and Business, and subsequentlycompleted the bank manager postgraduate program at BCE (Corvinus University of Budapest) and theBankárképző (Bank Training Institute). He received his Master’s degree from WU Vienna University ofEconomics and Business in 2022, earning an MBA in Vienna. He began his career at the HungarianDevelopment Bank in 2007, where he participated in building the bank group’s new asset manager,Hiventures. There, he worked as Head of Business Development, then as Investment Director, andfinally as Deputy CEO. He has been a member of the Board of Directors and the Chief Deputy CEO ofGránit Asset Management since April 2021 for one year. He has held the position of CEO and Chairmanof the Board of Gránit Asset Management since February 2023. He spends his free time with his threedaughters and engaging in sports.

How destabilizing is the geopolitical background to the real estate business in Hungary today?
Nowadays, we are living in a quite volatile environment. The war between Russia and Ukraine,geopolitical conflicts, and tariff policies with their related uncertainties influence our lives and theentire economy. This economic uncertainty not only hinders economic growth but also negativelyimpacts the real estate market. The war and the related energy crisis resulted in an inflation shock inEurope, especially in Hungary. Central banks increased interest rates, which also freezes the realestate market – other assets offer a better alternative for investors while credit has become expensive.Transaction volume in the commercial real estate market in Hungary was only 0.2 percent of GDP in2024. Before this turbulent period, before 2020, it was between 1.2 and 1.4 percent. In the comingperiod, we are looking for a market recovery, but this recovery is expected to be very slow. The interestrate environment is more favorable than it was some years ago, economic growth is expected toreturn, and hopefully, the geopolitical situation improves as well. The expected end of the war andthe softening of trade wars may result in a calmer environment for the region, which may breathenew life into the real estate market.

Which sectors are on the rise and fall in 2025?
It is not possible to definitively state that any sector will be a clear winner or loser in 2025. In the caseof office buildings, high quality, good location, and low energy costs combined ensure good occupancyrates. However, the “B” category is characterized by fierce price competition and high vacancy rates.In retail, the effects of slowly recovering domestic demand are visible. The market is characterized byan increase in visitor numbers and turnover, but to varying degrees across different retail sectors. In
logistics, the cyclical movement that has been typical for years can be observed. When vacancy ratesare low, numerous developments begin, causing a sudden spike in vacancies, but the market absorbsthe new developments within 1-1.5 years. High vacancy rates restrain development, which, with thecontinuous expansion of demand, moves the market in a positive direction. Currently, we are in a”significant development phase,” which will likely result in high vacancy rates by the end of the yearand into the first half of 2026.

ESG certification has long been the norm in the office sector and increasingly is so inindustrial/logistics. Will it inevitably gain ground in other sectors?
The office sector, due to its use by white-collar staff, is far more sensitive to environmental/ESGstandards than other sectors. Therefore, new developments that keep up with new standards, crucialfor leasing and selling office premises, are increasingly pushing existing asset managers to follow thesepractices. New constructions in both retail and industrial sectors adopt new standards due toconstruction codes and investor requirements, but retrofitting is still lagging behind due to the lack ofinterest from most tenants.

Given the growing concerns over carbon footprints and the impact on communities as well as theenvironment, is the renovation of existing buildings a better option thandeveloping a project from scratch?
If we compare the carbon footprint of building renovation and new construction, it is clear thatbuilding renovation results in lower environmental impact. However, when looking at investment andconstruction costs, new construction is often cheaper than renovating existing, low-energy-efficientbuildings. Paradoxically, the new American administration’s tariff measures, by reducing global freightvolumes, contribute to, or may contribute to, reducing the carbon footprint of certain products. If, forexample, it is not cost-effective to import an air conditioner from China and we use an Italian oneinstead, the additional carbon load from transportation is avoided.